Integrated Assessment Modeling @ NTNU
=====================================

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Lecture by `Volker Krey <https://www.iiasa.ac.at/staff/krey>`_
held on a biannual basis since the academic year 2019/2020.
Link to the lecture page at `NTNU`_.

.. _`NTNU` : https://www.ntnu.edu/studies/courses/EP8900/2019

Scope
^^^^^

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are extensively used in the analysis of
climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as
contribute to international assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The objective of this course is to provide an
overview of the field of integrated assessment modeling, including a
characterization of different types of IAMs, their methodological basis and
applications of IAMs. The field started emerging in the 1970's, based on
research by 2018 Nobel laureate William D. Nordhaus and others, and has
undergone a dynamic development to the present. The course introduces important
concepts in the field of climate change research, including the Shared
Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) that link integrated assessment modeling with climate and earth systems
modeling as well as climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
research.

Applying IAMs to analyze the potential role of individual technologies and
different policies in mitigation of climate change is studied from a systemic
perspective which is becoming increasingly important with the increasing
connections between regions and parts of human and natural systems. A recent
expansion of IAM research therefore deals with putting climate change mitigation
and policy into the context of broader sustainable development objectives,
including air quality, water management, energy security or resource efficiency.
The linkage of IAMs with methods and tools from other disciplines such as
atmospheric chemistry and health research related to air pollution or industrial
ecology research (e.g., lifecycle assessment) is discussed.

The course also provides an introduction to state-of-the-art modeling
techniques, including methods to ensure reproducibility of results, such as
version control and usage of tools for collaborative model development and
quality control. This will be achieved through exercises that require the
operation and modification of an existing IAM framework to analyze different
types of scenarios. Finally, studying current applications and methodological
expansions of IAMs in a seminar part of the course will deepen the understanding
of IAM applications at the research frontier.

Academic year 2019/2020 (EP8900)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

**Day 1**:

| A short history of IAMs, different modeling paradigms and system boundaries
| Good modeling practice and collaborative tools for model development
| Hands-on session: Installation of MESSAGEix and tutorial(s)

**Day 2**:

| Historical overview of IPCC scenarios
| Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
| Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
| Hands-on session: MESSAGEix South Africa
| Group work: SSP variants for South Africa

**Day 3**:

| Technology assessment using IAMs: “If-then” vs. “reverse engineering” approach
| Comparative assessment of value of technology
| Model evaluation of IAMs
| Group work (continued): SSP variants for South Africa

**Day 4**:

| Consumer heterogeneity in IAMs: Energy access, Transportation
| Policy analysis: assessing current policies and NDCs
| Group work (continued): SSP variants for South Africa

**Day 5**:

| Coupling IAMs to disciplinary models for assessing broader SDG implications
| Using IAMs for assessing SDG interactions
| Group work (continued): SSP variants for South Africa

Acknowledgement
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This lecture is based on ongoing research and capacity building activities.
It builds on material from a number people, in particular: Shinichiro Fujimori,
Matthew Gidden, Arnulf Grübler, Daniel Huppmann, Paul Kishimoto, Gunnar Luderer,
David McCollum, Haewon McJeon, Clara Orthofer, Shonali Pachauri, Simon
Parkinson, Peter Rafaj, Keywan Riahi, Heleen van Soest, Charlie Wilson, Behnam
Zakeri